Author: andrewiconnell

Covering the political and economic news from in and around Europe, analysing how events and rhetoric in the continent are shaping - and threatening - its future. Producer at Sky News. MA Broadcast Journalism graduate, Cardiff University. Languages undergraduate, King's College, Cambridge French, Spanish, Catalan, Portuguese & Ukrainian. Currently learning German & Italian.

An historic vote on independence in Catalan regional elections

An historic vote on independence in Catalan regional elections

Many hundreds of thousands of Catalans will crowd the streets of Barcelona today, marking the region’s annual national day, La Diada. A moment of pride for Catalans, showcasing their difference and cultural richness.

A sea of mosaic colours running for more than five kilometres in the Catalan capital will tell the world that, for many in this region, Catalonia should become a new, better country – that independence is the only option and a once-of-a-lifetime opportunity.

Crucially, today marks the start of campaigning for regional parliament elections on the 27th September, which has become a de facto referendum on independence. 135 seats are up for grabs, with the latest polling confirming the trend of a very narrow victory for pro-independence parties.

The Free Way to the Catalan Republic, a mosaic symbolising the start of building a new country
The Free Way to the Catalan Republic, a mosaic symbolising the start of building a new country

Parties from left and right, in support of independence are campaigning under a single umbrella called Junts Pel Sí, Together for Yes, formed in July. It groups together the ruling conservative CDC party, the left-wing ERC and several civil society organisations, responsible for the large-scale, pro-independence demonstrations that have made international news in recent years. Projections show that the coalition would win between 60 and 62 seats, but an absolute majority could only be achieved with the help of pro-independence and anti-capitalist party, CUP.

14415896163036The outcome of one poll shows the narrow political divisions in Catalonia in a hard-fought election campaign

The campaign is as much economic as political. Despite party differences, pro-independence campaigners say they are fed up with an unfair budget settlement from Madrid, which has meant harsh cuts to health and education that the Catalan government says it has been forced to make. Although levels of unemployment in the region are better than the rest of Spain, it remains a key worry for Catalans. In an independent Catalonia, President Artur Mas said he wouldn’t have to make a single euro in cuts.

Pro-independence campaign group Junts Pel Sí's election slogan, el vot de la teva vida - the vote of your life.
Pro-independence campaign group Junts Pel Sí’s election slogan, el vot de la teva vida – the vote of your life.

Judging the mood in Catalonia without referencing the elections directly, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said on Tuesday that political uncertainty is the biggest problem for the Spanish economy. Indeed, in the past few days, risk in the Spanish economy has risen with the favourable fortunes of pro-independence politics in the polls.

Economic credibility in such a politically charged campaign is a key bargain chip amid a lot of bluster and scaremongering. Mas argued for the economic viability of an independent Catalonia, even if it were outside the EU – a significant sticking point.

At the same time, the Catalan President said Spain would survive without Catalonia, deeming it a “win-win” result. Spain would remain Catalonia’s largest trading partner in the event of indepedence.

Dialogue between Barcelona and Madrid broke down before it even started, as Rajoy cannot countenance any debate surrounding the break-up of Spain. His key pledge ahead of national elections in December is one of stability, amid a marked upturn in growth for the Spanish economy.

A majority of Catalans agree that, even if they aren’t in support of independence, a vote should nonetheless take place. It is a matter of democracy, pro-independence supporters say, which is being undermined by Madrid. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel García-Margallo told the BBC: “This so-called independent Catalonia will have no chance at recognition.”

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Junts pel Sí, Together for Yes, bringing a unified pro-indepdence campaign to regional elections.

Estimates from Junts pel Sí suggest that Catalonia would be the 12th largest European economy, and the creation of a new state would cost just over 39 billion euros. A key part of their electoral program is the structural plan for an independent Catalonia, including new bodies such as a tax authority, and a central bank, which have yet to be costed. It’s also unknown for the moment whether the state would have its own armed forces. On defence, Mas has no doubt that Catalonia must remain part of NATO.

In addition, debt settlement with Madrid would mean a new state initially burdened with large debts, offset by a new fiscal arrangement which would bring in 11 billion euros.

Speaking last week on a trip to Madrid, British Prime Minister David Cameron very much hoped Spain would remain united, and warned in no uncertain terms that Catalonia would have to apply for EU membership if it seceded from Spain.

The spectre of a Catalan EU exit was also raised by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said last week: “We share the view that there are EU treaties by which we are all bound and these EU treaties guarantee the national integrity and sovereignty of every country.”

An unprecedented move such as this in European Union history means any outcome is all the more unpredictable.

Standing in the way of pro-independence parties are the new political forces on the block. Ciutadans, which opposes Catalan nationalism, is expected to be the second biggest party after the pro-independence coalition, with around 21 seats.

Its leader, Albert Rivera, has called the 27th September “the most important day in the history of Catalonia”. Ciutadans is making huge efforts to mobilise Catalans to reject this election as being a proxy independence vote. Rivera is worried about one likely scenario which could mean victory for pro-independence Junts Pel Sí, with just 40% of the share of the vote. Mas says it is the number of seats, not the numbers game, which matters more, given 28.7% of those in a poll released yesterday still haven’t decided.

Podemos, the far-left, anti-austerity party which has already shaken up the dominance of traditional left and right parties in Spain, is campaigning with other leftist forces in a coalition called “Catalonia Yes We Can”. They are desperately mobilising those who wouldn’t usually vote, as well as criticising Mas and his party over allegations of corruption. It was a strategy which paid off in local elections in May, allowing Ada Colau to be installed as mayor of Barcelona. The coalition would be the third largest party with 15 seats, according to poll estimates.

Mas hopes a solid win for pro-independence parties will pave the way for an 18-month roadmap to secession. Polls on secession are as close as it gets – 44% support independence, 46% reject it, with the usual caveat that, after all, this is just one poll.

The region held an informal consultation last November, asking voters whether they wanted Catalonia to be a state and whether they wanted that state to be independent. 80% of voters voted ‘yes’ to both. Another sign of the potent disaffection with Spain, it was held in fierce opposition to politicians in Madrid, who called it a sham.

Just a few months away from general elections, likely to be held on the 20th December, all parties are on the political warpath to present their case on an issue that threatens the shape of Spain.

The socialist party PSC, the regional offshoot of the opposition party, PSOE, has said that the current system of autonomy within Spain is outdated, and reforms would be needed to keep Catalonia in Spain, specifically the tearing up of the country’s Constitution, which presently forbids questioning the unity of Spain, to create a new deal through dialogue and negotiation.

Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez has said that in as much as Mariano Rajoy has confronted Catalans with the rest of Spain, Artur Mas is equally as divisive in pitting Catalans against other Catalans. The problem for both Spain and Catalonia, for him, is one of leadership. He wishes to see both men out of office in his idea for a new, federal Spain.

Today, Catalans will have their own say on the political future of the region on the streets, democratically, colourfully and enthusiastically. On the 27th September, Catalonia and Spain alike face an uncertain future.

Whatever the result – in a vote which will attract an incredibly high turnout – it is without doubt that the status quo will be no longer. Anti-independence parties say Catalonia would head for disaster in the event of a ‘yes’ win, with no possibility of dialogue. In that eventuality, pro-independence parties will use their mandate to lay the first stones in building a Catalan state, and at the same time, preside over the break-up of Spain.

It is a point of no return.

MORE. January 2015: All or nothing: An early Catalan vote which brings secession expectations

France’s unpredictable political machine fires up once more

France’s unpredictable political machine fires up once more

The French political machine is powering up again after a summer break, greatly in anticipation of December’s regional elections. This week, loyalists and members of France’s governing Socialist party, along with those from the Front National, have been gathering to muse party strategy and reflect on policy in the annual ‘université d’été’ conference season amid a stagnant economy and a large programme of reforms aimed at cutting down France’s large bureaucracy.

If last week was dominated by fall-out from the parricide of Front National co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, this week’s big story was a proverbial call to arms to rescue the flagging Socialist ship, together with the internal row within the government over the country’s sacred 35-hour working week.

Prime Minister Manuel Valls brought the party gathering to a close with a speech centred on the values of the Socialists, calling for members to be “proud”. So passionate was his hour-long address that his shirt was visibly soaked through with sweat. Among his pledges was the duty to help those fleeing war, torture, oppression and persecution, who “need” France’s help and “must” be welcomed.

On the 35-hour working week law, the holy cow of the French left, Valls considered the issue “clos”, or closed, after a series of heated public disagreements with rogue Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron. He argued it was a “false idea” for France to think it would create more jobs and grow more if people worked fewer hours, especially in comparison with other European nations, such as Britain or Italy. Favouring abstract language, Valls asserted: “What interests me is not the past but the future.”

Absent from the weekend conference, young members of the Socialists called for Macron’s resignation, booing at the mention of his name or allusion to his economic plan.

Macron, a former banker, has thus far divided political minds. For the traditionalist wing of the Socialist party, he is part of the elite, guilty of straying from traditional Socialist values, as Hollande positions himself as increasingly pro-business, after a purge of left-wing members from his cabinet last summer. Supporters say Macron is forcing France to face an inconvenient truth and, as such, adopt necessary reforms.

The minister said work should be a “central value of the left”, not a “taboo subject”.

Reforms for France’s flat economy are the order of the day as the unpopular government seeks to be seen as economically credible. Defiant as ever, Valls said: “We are pressing ahead with the deep reforms our economy needs” – “we won’t be swayed”. In the firing line, the country’s rigid labour laws, which have “become inefficient” and “curbed activity”.

In the crowd-pleasing address, the prime minister equally evoked the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January as a means of promoting equality and fighting against discrimination in France, and criticising the confusing, “incoherent” right of politics, and the reactionary far-right.

A survey for France’s Paris Match magazine this week confirmed a trend that the incumbent Socialist party would be eliminated in the first round of voting in the country’s presidential election in 2017. In first place – Marine Le Pen, whose popularity has suffered only slightly following the public execution of her outspoken father, Jean-Marie.

The poll also compared the fortunes of several Socialist leaders, pitting President against Prime Minister Valls and several other hypothetical candidates. It showed that Manuel Valls would do marginally better than François Hollande, beaten by Republican candidate and former President Nicolas Sarkozy by just one point.

For the FN’s part, Marion Maréchal Le Pen – the party’s only deputy in the south – would win the first round of voting in December elections. In the second round, to be held a week later, she would lose by a narrow gap of just 2 points, within the margin of error in this one poll. In this way, the fight between right and extreme right has rarely been closer, and evidently it’s all to play for in a battle of tight numbers.

The poll has given rise to suggestions that Prime Minister Valls, seen as performing well with 29-45 year olds, professionals and those with a higher education, is an attractive candidate for the Socialists if unemployment doesn’t fall, leaving an empty seat at the top of the party, after Hollande’s pledge to not stand as Socialist candidate in the 2017 presidential elections.

Valls is part of the social liberal wing of the Socialist party, known for widening the appeal of the party by positioning himself as a bold reformer, capable of breaking down party taboos.

Selling ambitious – albeit watered-down – and divisive reforms to the French people will play alongside questions within the equally divided Socialist government. Endless discussions about Hollande’s deep unpopularity will pose questions about the leadership of the party ahead of elections, particularly with Valls in mind as his successor. However, such leadership whispers, serve as nothing more than a great distraction from the more crucial economic questions facing France.

The outcome of the government’s five-year term will depend above all on the health of the French economy, and the all but uncertain fate of the programme of reforms. Survival is the best option for this Socialist government.

Back to school for France’s President

Back to school for France’s President

Playtime will soon be over. A few weeks remain before French children return to school after their summer holiday. Parents perform the annual ritual of buying books and pencils in what the French call the rentrée scolaire and it’s obsessively discussed across French TV and radio. It is a homecoming too for France’s deputies who return to parliament tomorrow – and for President François Hollande, who faces a timetable dominated worringly by a flat-lining economy and consistently low popularity ratings. Question: how will the President dress up these dismal figures faced with predictably fierce criticism?

Here is a flavour of what will be on the agenda in the next few months.

Economics

Satirical TV show 'Les Guignols de l'Info' depicts François Hollande reading about growing unemployment. Credit: YouTube
Satirical TV show ‘Les Guignols de l’Info’ depicts François Hollande reading about growing unemployment. Credit: YouTube

Last week saw anaemic growth for the Eurozone as a whole of just +0.3%. For France, the bloc’s second largest economy, it was a humiliating 0 – no growth at all in the second quarter, despite predictions of +0.3%, and a marked fall from the remarkable +0.7% in the months from January to March. Household consumption and business investment and confidence have both slowed, despite measures such as the eurozone-wide programme of quantative easing to stimulate businesses earlier this year.

Ministers will be hoping their big package of measures – the loi Macron – named after economy minister Emmanuelle Macron to liberalise the economy, including Sunday opening hours in tourist areas and cut red tape, will bring more positive figures, but this is still some way off from fruition.

Crucially, the flat-lining of the economy makes any reduction in France’s unemployment rate – currently 10.3% – and its sizeable deficit – due to its immense public sector – all the more difficult.

France is predicting growth of just 1% this year, and 1.6% in 2016, as Finance Minister Michel Sapin remains adamant such growth aspirations can be achieved. Compare that to the UK’s forecast this year of 2.5% growth, and Germany’s 1.7%. Sapin said the government wouldn’t waver from measures such as tax cuts for businesses, which have divided parliament.

France’s economy, along with the rest of Europe, is being buoyed by the 6-year low in the cost of fuel, but this has yet to filter down to weak domestic demand. One analyst says he expects the labour market to gradually stabilise and confidence to be reinforced in the coming months, but added there is little prospect of growth of more than one per-cent this year.

Politics

Speaking to a local Corsican newspaper today while on holiday, former President and Republican Party hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy went on the offensive in a strategically explosive interview just a day before politicians return from their break. He criticised Hollande and prime minister Manuel Valls, accusing them of dishonesty. He said: “François Hollande and Manuel Valls have said to us for three years that things are getting better, that unemployment is going to fall, that growth is going to return, that the French people are going to pay less in taxes. Three years that they’ve been wrong or have been lying to the French people.”

An exclusive interview with Nicolas Sarkozy. Credit: Corse Matin
An exclusive interview with Nicolas Sarkozy in Corsica. Credit: Corse Matin

He also took a swipe at Valls’ latest idea of cutting waste and France’s dreaded bureaucracy – to reduce the number of the country’s regions from 22 to 13. He said such a measure “destroys what we have built”. Seeing himself once again as President material, he commented on Russia and France’s pork crisis in Brittany, an ongoing row over unfair pricing for farmers.

It’s worth remembering that France’s delicate recovery matters so much to François Hollande that he has gambled his candidacy for the Socialist party in the 2017 presidential race, affirming that he will step down if unemployment doesn’t fall sufficiently before then. Throughout his presidency, Hollande has consistently punctuated the publication of economic indicators by reiterating the mantra of an economic recovery, but one which is all too weak. It has been clear for some time that many French people have become impatient with this unpopular, repetitive president.

Presidential elections will fall in spring 2017, but the next test for the ruling Socialist government will be regional elections in December, in which Marine Le Pen will likely again make large waves. They will be pivotal in deciding the balance of power and predicting leaders in the 2017 race for the Elysée. Expect many tens of addresses and hours of train journeys crossing the country to talk directly to the French electorate.

At tomorrow’s meeting of ministers, Hollande will be quick to appoint a new Work Minister – a post seen as key in combatting unemployment – as incumbent François Rebsamen leaves the post to focus on his mayorship of Dijon. In the coming weeks, the fight against terrorism and starting to prepare the final budget of the President’s term will be the most important themes.

The environment

If François Hollande can’t cut it for a domestic audience, it will be on the international stage that he will be wishing to gain recognition. Paris will play host to the United Nations Climate Change conference at the beginning of December. François Hollande is hoping for decisive action on the environmental front to be a poignant moment of his quinquennat, or five-year term in office. A legally-binding reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to limit an increase in global temperatures is the key goal of this meeting.

Diplomacy

A month after historical talks between the UN and Iran over its nuclear activities concluded with a deal, and France’s foreign minister Laurent Fabius visit to Tehran, Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani was last month handed an invitation to visit Paris this November. Whilst there is some caution as to the nature of the country’s thawing relationship with the West, what is more assured is the attempt  to restart trade with the isolated Middle Eastern state. François Hollande will be hoping to promote France’s biggest car brands – Renault, Peugeot and Citroen – as Iran’s economy begins the slow process of opening up.

French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, left, welcomes Britain's Interior Minister Theresa May before the start of an international meeting aimed at fighting terrorism, in Paris, France, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2015. A rally of defiance and sorrow, protected by an unparalleled level of security, on Sunday will honor the 17 victims of three days of bloodshed in Paris that left France on alert for more violence. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)/PAR115/987867890141/1501111213
French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve meets with British Home Secretary Theresa May in Calais on Thursday

The migrant crisis in Calais has surprisingly received far less mainstream media coverage in France than you would expect. With finger pointing on either side of the Channel, French interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve will meet with his opposite number Teresa May on Thursday, even touring the Eurotunnel, to discuss the migrant crisis, which has seen most recent numbers of migrants dwindle – temporarily or not. A deal will be signed to increase security in the Calais port area, as well as discussing people trafficking and humanitarian efforts.

The President’s summer has largely been occupied by the many late-night emergency meetings which brought Greece back from the brink of Grexit and European economic chaos. Negotiating with hardline Angela Merkel and sticking up for Greek PM Alexis Tsipras, Hollande has long been keeping a close eye on European affairs, as he argues for an ever closer currency union between the 19 Eurozone members.

With all of this, there are now only 20 months to the presidential election. One adviser in the Elysée said: “This is a very important phase in the five-year term.”

Mistakes at this point in the political game simply cannot be made.

Don’t mention the G-word. Turning up the heat in Europe

Don’t mention the G-word. Turning up the heat in Europe

Greece still has many hurdles to jump through before it can see its 86bn euro bailout being enacted. First, a vote in the Greek parliament is needed by Wednesday, which seems likely with opposition support. Parliaments in several eurozone states also have to approve the new bailout. In the longer term, Greece’s economy will likely enter a serious recession – a contraction of 3%, a rise in unemployment above 26%, and that’s before the ECB announces any further emergency liquidity (ELA) to prop up Greece’s virtually bust banking system, with capital controls to be kept in place for some time yet, and banks of course, still closed. And on Alexis Tsipras’ desk, a bill of 3.5bn euros to be paid to the ECB by next Monday.

With the vote on Greece’s bailout producing a decisive ‘no’ vote last Sunday, it was as much a referendum on prime minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza government, who now face supporting a more draconian bailout than was previously offered. The shift to populist parties across Europe is a trend that is set to continue, given the success of UKIP as a significant player in UK politics, the rapid rise of Podemos and latterly Ciutadans in Spain, as well as other parties across the continent challenging the consensus and traditional party politics. Together with this is a growing probing of democracy in Brussels, as many politicians will use the Greek deal as a means of making bold statements on the brutal nature of negotiations EU-style. Among them, the politics – and fairness – of austerity – endlessly debated between economists, its effects witnessed on every level in pharmacies and homes in Greece.

Talks around the table about Greece’s bailout flared up European divisions on the country’s exit from the single currency it has just avoided. Similar rifts on the migrant crisis have divided north and south Europe – the lion share of the 137,000 people in the first six months of the year arriving at the shores of Italy and Greece, the majority fleeing from Syria’s bloody civil war, according to a recent UNHCR report.

A look at headlines in recent days points to the continued scale of this problem. “Hungary begins work on border fence to keep out migrants”. 80,000 migrants have already reached Hungary this year, 80% of them from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, Hungary received more refugees per capita than any other EU country apart from Sweden. The threat of migrants is causing other European states to erect walls and fences, a physical and symbolic image of this problem.

The solidarity needed to implement Brussels’ plan to distribute migrants more fairly throughout Europe and ease the pressure on its most vulnerable states was in short evidence, after the plan was rejected at the end of June by European leaders, confirming again the toxic nature of immigration.

Long ignored in the European news cycle has been Ukraine. Its economy is forecast to shrink by nine percent this year, so precarious the situation remains in the country. Russia’s frozen conflict in the east has affected production, as a trade war continues. Gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine, as of the beginning of July, have been halted.

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko spoke yesterday of Russia’s plan to make Ukraine a “state of bondage”, wishing to exert political influence through the conflict in the east. He said: “Ukraine won’t allow that.”

He also warned of a new spike in military activity in Donbass: “We’ve got information that there is a record large number of the armed forces of the Russian federation along with the border of Ukraine.”

The Greek deal this morning has also staved off the threat of Russian economic assistance for the crippled southern European economy. Russian president Vladimir Putin was keen to ally with Tsipras, the latter describing Russia as one of “Greece’s most important partners” just last month. In addition, NATO movements in the Baltics to counter Russian aggression look unlikely to end any time soon.

A cocktail of economics and politics have already made for an incredibly turbulent year for Europe and its institutions. Disagreements are likely to create further divisions, proving the difficulty in mastering the art of diplomacy in such a divergent continent.

France’s olive branch to Greece

France’s olive branch to Greece

Greek negotiations are looking more precarious – and harder to predict – than ever. This weekend saw a hard-ball approach from Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who proposed allowing a temporary exit for Greece from the euro, and an even clearer line from Finland, who rejected the latest proposals, that trust has completely broken down – its finance minister erring more on the side of a Grexit than keeping the country in the single currency. One official said some of the proposals appeared designed to “humiliate” the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza government.

Germany stands together with Baltic states, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Netherlands in being uncompromising and more willing than ever before to see the 19-member currency break down. Meanwhile, hope still rests with Southern Europe states such as Spain, Portugal and Italy, who have shown themselves to be far more ready to fight for a deal, owing in part to their own economic troubles. A Greek exit would do them no favours, as the ripples of a broken Europe would flood the entire continent no less.

By far the most loyal supporter of Greece throughout the negotiations has been France. Newspaper reports at the beginning of the week outed the fact that advisers from the French Treasury had been in Athens, helping the Greeks to draft out the proposals that prime minister Alexis Tsipras handed to the European Council on Thursday evening. One adviser said: “It’s the Greeks who are holding the pen, but they are using us as a sparring-partner”. Sceptics have used this as a means of exaggerating France’s role, retorting that the Greeks would be incapable of working alone on the list of reforms. Greece needs expertise, and for France, it shows that they are at the very centre of the European game.

greece-s-pm-tsipras-eu

On Sunday, Hollande dismissed German proposals of a temporary Greek exit, which had grabbed many of the headlines. He asserted: “There is no temporary Grexit, there is a Grexit or there is not a Grexit”.

For each French citizen, Greek debt totals 600-700 euros. Although the eurozone has tried since the beginning of this crisis to build a firewall around Greece, a Grexit would nonetheless spell a loss of 55.7bn euros to the French, far more than either Italy or Spain, according to 2012 figures.

France’s president, François Hollande, has long been working hard for a German compromise in achieving a deal, acknowledging the suffering of the Greek people and the need for “indispensible” reforms. On Wednesday, he said Greece’s latest proposals for its next 59bn euro bailout were both “serious” and “credible”. Hollande equally talked of the need of a united Europe, whose break-up Angela Merkel could realistically never allow herself to preside over.

The Greek crisis has marked the fracturing of the symbolic, long-standing Franco-German micro-managing of the European Union’s recent troubles – Angela Merkel seems more than ever to run the show alone – her calm, measured approach resonating far more than any other leader.

In no uncertain terms, France’s economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, warned in Spain’s El País newspaper on Thursday: “if we don’t act fast, the euro zone will cease to exist in ten years”. In what is increasingly seen as a disagreement around negotiation tables, Macron argued that a Grexit would not only be an economic failure, but political. He said: “Not doing everything possible so that Greece stays in the eurozone is accepting a deterioration of Europe”. Macron’s grand gestures were accompanied by a warning for the 19-member currency as a whole: “the status quo and ambiguity are driving us to the disbanding of the eurozone.”

Echoing the language of Hollande, he said a compromise had to be found, with ambitious reforms for Greece, but not so much so that they destroy the country’s economy, given its already painful course of austerity. Investment was needed for growth, but Macron maintained a critical line against Syriza and Tsipras, who is no hero of the Greek people, he said.

François Hollande has always been seen to be more presidential on an international stage, from France’s military intervention into former colony Mali’s war against Islamists, to the British co-ordinated attack on Libya. In reality, he is continuing to struggle with his own domestic politics – a weaker-than-expected economic recovery, with unemployment refusing to budge. Economic growth for this year is predicted at 1.2%, admittedly far more than the 0.4% average growth of the past three years.

A strong Europe can not only afford Hollande a more statesman-like appearance on the continental stage, more crucially it pays to counter the anti-EU rhetoric of Marine Le Pen’s Front National party, whose reaction to Greece’s ‘no’ vote was to laud Greek PM Alexis Tsipras as a respected leader and a man of the people. She was clearly drawing on the rhetoric of increasingly potent populist politics sweeping across Europe. To draw parallels, Le Pen conjured up the figures of Mitterand, even de Gaulle, to colour her complimentary remarks. At the same time, she attacked Hollande for being the “cabinet director of Jean-Claude Juncker”.

Le Pen talked of the victory of the ‘no’ camp as a means of standing up to the “oligarchy” of the EU, the “diktats” of the single currency and an “inhumane” austerity. In short, she said: “this No is excellent news”, spelling the end of France throwing money into Greece’s black hole of debt. She even coined the term “eurosterity” (or eurostérité), calling for the dissolution of the single currency, which she likened to a vanity project which was saving face only by imposing tough austerity.

Running short of allies, Alexis Tsipras cut a lonely figure around the negotiation table on Sunday. As leaders enter a new week of talks, nobody really knows whether Greece is blindly tip-toeing to the exit door, or if the solidarity shown by the likes of France will ultimately lead to a last-minute deal. After leaders ignored the seemingly apocalyptic Sunday deadline, the can-kicking that has characterised negotiations looks set to continue, for how ever long it can.

French education reform

French education reform

I’ve been avidly following the twists and turns of the biggest story in France for a few weeks now – the controversial education reform that the Socialist government is wishing to bring into force despite protests and a lot of noise from the unions and the right of politics. It’s a heady mix of education and politics, and it rarely goes smoothly.

Here is my 2-minute report on what has been happening this week with this big debate in France.

#endweek5blues rally in Cambridge

#endweek5blues rally in Cambridge

I attended the rally outside the University’s symbolic Senate House, as students activitists from CDE (Cambridge Defend Education) concluded their week of action in support of a reading week. I stayed for an hour, talking to students, organisers and participants in the week-long show of solidarity, as well as taking lots of photos.

Here’s the link to the photo-led article on Varsity:

http://www.varsity.co.uk/news/8303