Relations between Catalonia and the rest of Spain have changed forever, whatever the result of today’s unprecedented elections.
The make-up of the Catalan parliament will have been decided by a huge voter turnout – a triumph of democracy.
Tonight’s exit poll gives an absolute majority to separatist coalition Junts Pel Sí, with the help of far-left, anti-EU, anti-NATO party CUP, who are this election’s kingmakers. It is an election with the most obvious of outcomes, though caution remains, as even the two parties together may not gain 50% of the votes.
A nation waiting in nail-biting anticipation of how Madrid will react the morning after the night before. With over 60% of Catalans having voted, separatists will vaunt their firm mandate. How ambitious will they be with their demands? The tone of debate will be fiery to say the least.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will play the constitutional card in an election which he has scorned for having become a de facto yes or no vote.
His conservative party will have roughly the same number of seats as Sí Que Es Pot, a coalition of leftist parties which in their political youth would have hoped to have made far more of an impact. Both will be disappointed.
The extent of victory for separatists will damage the prime minister’s credibility after refusing any movement on Spain’s current constitutional arrangements. Will Rajoy change his tune – faced with this electoral explosion?
While financial markets and bond yields will likely wobble as they have done already, Catalan independence is still a while away. While the plan is to start the task of building national structures within Catalonia as part of an 18-month roadmap to complete secession, there are lots of hopes but no guarantees. Junts Pel Sí will plough on ahead with or without the permission of Madrid.
The future of Catalonia outside of Spain is just as uncertain as it is inside.
It has been an energetic campaign which has threatened, energised, and empassioned with hours of debate and a quarter of voters still undecided a week before the vote.
The significance of tonight’s result will only be decided in December when Spain votes nationally for their next government. Polls suggest no one party will win a majority. Spain is now just as likely to have a right-wing government which will rebuke separatists as it is having a left-wing government which will negotiate a new deal for Catalonia.
To hold secessionist politicians to account will be Ciutadans, which firmly rejects Catalan independence. It has been a huge rise in fortunes for a party with humble beginnings. Ciutadans has captured the imagination of anti-independence Catalans in a way that traditional socialist parties have failed. They will remind Junts Pel Sí that there is a sizeable anti-independence movement in Catalonia which have to be listened to.
This last week of frantic campaigning was riddled with an embarrassing number of blunders courtesy of those who have tried to undermine the viability of an independent Catalonia.
It started with a radio interview with Mariano Rajoy, who couldn’t be sure if Catalans would lose Spanish citizenship in the event of secession. Footage from the exchange showed a startled, exposed prime minister who stumbled through a response to an article in the Spanish Constitution which states that nobody of Spanish origin can be deprived of their nationality.
Spain’s magna carta drawn up in 1978 has been the subject of much criticism. It is the roadblock for separatists, preventing the realisation of their ambitions.
An attempt by Spanish banks to persuade pro-independence campaigns to change their mind by appealing to their wallets was seen by skeptics as nothing more than lucky timing. A group of leading banks warned of the risks of an independent Catalonia – some of the same banks that a few years ago refused to enter the debate.
Calming words for Catalans came from the head of the Bank of Spain, who clarified threats of capital controls in an independent Catalonia as being “highly unlikely”.
Artur Mas addressed a crowd on Wednesday, saying: “This time, the weapons of destruction employed by Madrid will not triumph in Catalonia.”
He continued: “They will not destroy our dignity. They will not destroy our project. They will not destroy our dream. They will not destroy our excitement. They will not destroy Catalonia’s freedom.”
With so much unknown, tomorrow will be just as important – if not more – than today.
The towering figures of Europe and Madrid have yet to speak.
Andrew Connell 